MarketPR

Fed hike odds at 83% on Polymarket ahead of September 16, with Bitcoin and XRP already pricing the move

9/12/2026

Prediction market Polymarket priced a 25 basis point Federal Reserve hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting at 83% as of September 12, 2026, up from roughly 30% before the Jackson Hole symposium and about 50% before the August CPI release.

Bitcoin ($BTC) and XRP ($XRP) have been absorbing that repricing for two weeks. The next concrete event is the Fed decision on September 16.

How the odds got to 83% August's core CPI print came in at 0.3%, one-tenth above the 0.2% consensus, while the headline matched estimates.

That hotter-than-expected underlying read drove the Polymarket probability from 50% to 83%, the largest single jump in the cycle.