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Fed Signals 25bps June Cut as CPI Cools to 2.4% — SPX Eyes New Catalyst

6/11/2026

That's the number traders circled Wednesday as the Federal Open Market Committee telegraphed its June move, validating a rate-cut trajectory that equity desks have been modeling for months.

CPI landed at 2.4% year-over-year — the tamest print since 2024 — and the Fed's updated dot plot did what the market needed it to do: confirm the path, not complicate it.

Two cuts for 2026 had already been baked into positioning. The dot plot simply stamped the paperwork. SPX absorbed the signal with the composure of a market that had already done its homework.

Futures had been leaning into this scenario for weeks, and the actual confirmation removed a layer of uncertainty that had been quietly taxing risk appetite.

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