MarketPR
Prediction markets on Kalshi are pricing the chance of the U.S. federal government taking an equity stake in OpenAI or Anthropic at less than 30% for this calendar year.
Both AI companies sit inside the same market, making the Kalshi read the most direct available probability signal on a policy move that would reshape who owns a seat at the table in American AI.
What the market is pricing The sub-30% figure comes from active traders on Kalshi's platform. Real capital stands behind that estimate, which separates it from survey opinion.
The market is treating a federal equity position in either OpenAI or Anthropic as a tail scenario for the year, not a probable one. Kalshi's contract covers both companies together.
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