MarketPR
The probability of a U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement has dropped to new lows on Kalshi, the prediction markets exchange, with traders now placing a 40% chance on a deal before 2028 and a 50% chance on one before January 20, 2029.
Both contract probabilities have retreated materially from highs recorded in the spring. The Kalshi contracts in focus Two separate contracts on Kalshi are tracking the deal timeline.
One resolves on whether an agreement is reached before 2028; the other extends to January 20, 2029. Traders currently price those at 40% and 50%, respectively.
The spread between those readings reflects the incremental probability that a deal, if it arrives, comes in the 2028-to-2029 window rather than before the earlier cutoff. Both contracts were higher in the spring.
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