MarketPR

May CPI Forecast at 3.4% Y/Y as Fed Hike Odds Reach 65%

6/11/2026

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release May Consumer Price Index figures on June 11, 2025 at 8:30 AM ET, with economists forecasting a year-over-year headline reading of 3.4%—one tick above April's 3.3%—while core CPI is expected to hold at 3.6%.

Those numbers, if confirmed, would cement Federal Reserve tightening bets already visible in the 2-year Treasury yield, which has moved to 4.85%, and push CME FedWatch odds for a June quarter-point hike to 65%, up from 50% a month ago.

What's Driving the Stickiness Analysts point to three recurring pressure points: shelter costs, energy prices, and services-sector inflation.

Both headline and core measures are projected to show a 0.3% monthly gain—a pace that undercuts hopes for a clean deceleration.

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