MarketPR
A formal economic model published June 2 by Stevens Institute of Technology finance professor Balbinder Singh Gill concludes that banning insider trading outright in prediction markets would damage the very accuracy those rules are meant to protect.
regulators and lawmakers are actively scrutinizing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket over manipulation concerns.
The Mechanism: Why a Full Ban Backfires Gill's model identifies what he calls a paradox at the core of prediction-market design.
Insiders — traders who hold information the crowd does not — push prices closer to true probabilities faster than ordinary participants can. Remove them entirely, and the information flow dries up.
Keep reading