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US May CPI Forecast at 4.2% — A Three-Year High That Could Lock In the Fed's Rate Path

6/2/2026

Economists surveyed by major financial data providers project the US Consumer Price Index rose 4.2% year-over-year in May, a level not seen since early 2023, with the official print due next week.

Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is forecast at 3.8% annually — also a multi-year peak.

If the data confirm those estimates, the Federal Reserve will have limited justification to soften its hawkish posture heading into the next policy decision.

What the Forecast Numbers Actually Show On a monthly basis, headline CPI is expected to gain 0.4% in May, with core CPI up 0.3%. Persistent price pressure across shelter, services, and energy is driving the acceleration.