Bitcoin Supply in Profit Near 75% Mean Signals $82,000 Resistance

More than 71% of Bitcoin's circulating supply now sits in profit, a figure approaching the 74.7% historical mean that Bitfinex associates with the transition from bear to bull markets. This accumulation of unrealized gains near the $82,000 price ceiling introduces a structural tension: while the rising share of profitable coins signals recovery, it also positions a larger pool of holders to take profits as the asset tests previous local highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded within a range extending from roughly $77,200 to $82,100. On Tuesday, the price slipped to an intraday low of $77,603 before recovering to near $78,600 by late morning. The rebound placed the asset in the middle of its recent range rather than above the upper boundary established near $82,000 the previous week. This movement occurred alongside substantial liquidations, with approximately $79 million in Bitcoin positions liquidated. Long positions accounted for $187 million of the $264 million in total crypto liquidations during the swing.

Bitfinex notes that profit supply is not a standalone bullish signal but describes the distribution of unrealized gains across supply. Comparing current levels to May reveals a shift in market composition. During the May consolidation, when Bitcoin traded above $82,500, about 67% of the supply was in profit. At comparable price levels now, that figure exceeds 71%. Short-term holder cost basis fell to $68,400 during the summer, reflecting accumulation at lower prices. Consequently, at identical nominal price levels, more coins show paper gains than they did in May, creating a deeper pool of latent sell-side liquidity when the market tests previous highs.

Period	BTC Price Level	Supply in Profit
May consolidation	Above $82,500	About 67%
Current comparable levels	Near recent range	Above 71%
Bitfinex historical mean	Not applicable	74.7%

Offsetting this potential selling pressure, onchain data reported $31.07 million in daily net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and $698.42 million in seven-day inflows. Bitfinex cited continued ETF demand and stablecoin supply growth as sources of market support. Additionally, the aggregate value of digital assets other than Bitcoin, Ether, and stablecoins has grown by $51.2 billion since September began, currently sitting higher than it was in mid-August.

These flows operate within a more restrictive macro environment. August payrolls increased by 162,000, exceeding the 53,000 consensus estimate. The two-year Treasury yield remained above 4.34%, keeping short-term rates in focus. With August Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index reports due following this data, a hotter inflation reading could strengthen the case for tighter policy. Bitfinex framed the key question as whether investors would continue buying through Treasury buybacks and incoming inflation data. Sustained buying would indicate that policy rates are less of a binding constraint, while weaker flows around those events would point in the opposite direction.