Grayscale: $BTC On-Chain Metrics Signal Undervaluation, but 2022 Lows Remain the Deeper Trough
Grayscale Research's June 9 report places $BTC below its long-term average on a composite on-chain valuation indicator, while noting the current discount is shallower than the lows recorded during the FTX collapse of 2022. With $BTC around $61,901 and down 21% over the prior 30 days, the asset manager characterizes current levels as a long-horizon buying opportunity — conditional on two near-term catalysts: the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and the balance-sheet stability of leveraged Bitcoin holders.
Key takeaways
- Grayscale Research's June 9 report places $BTC below its long-term average on a composite on-chain valuation indicator, signaling undervaluation.
- The current discount is shallower than the lows recorded during the 2022 FTX collapse, which remains the reference point for extreme undervaluation.
- Grayscale characterizes current levels (around $61,901, down 21% over the prior 30 days) as a long-horizon buying opportunity conditional on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and the stability of leveraged Bitcoin holders.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs added consistent selling pressure, with outflows totaling roughly $4.4 billion during the period and BlackRock's BTC ETF recording its longest outflow streak at 13 consecutive days.
- Grayscale attributes the milder drawdown to structural changes including a less overextended bull run, spot ETPs, wider wealth-management deployment, and deeper institutional adoption.
Grayscale Research's June 9 report places $BTC below its long-term average on a composite on-chain valuation indicator, while noting the current discount is shallower than the lows recorded during the FTX collapse of 2022. With $BTC around $61,901 and down 21% over the prior 30 days, the asset manager characterizes current levels as a long-horizon buying opportunity — conditional on two near-term catalysts: the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and the balance-sheet stability of leveraged Bitcoin holders.
What the On-Chain Composite Actually Reads
Grayscale's composite is an average of multiple established on-chain metrics. Read together, those metrics place $BTC at a discount relative to its historical norms. The firm's phrasing is deliberate: the asset is undervalued, but not as cheap as previous cycle lows. The 2022 FTX-driven trough remains the reference point for extreme undervaluation, and the current reading does not reach it.
The firm attributes the comparatively mild drawdown to structural changes in the market: a less overextended preceding bull run, the introduction of spot exchange-traded products, wider deployment across wealth management platforms, and deeper institutional adoption. In Grayscale's view, those factors have collectively provided a firmer price floor than prior cycles could claim.
CLARITY Act and Leveraged Holders as Near-Term Swing Factors
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is Grayscale's primary cited regulatory catalyst. The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill in May after an extended delay; Senator Cynthia Lummis described the legislation on X as "the most consequential financial legislation of this generation." The firm splits its guidance by investor type: those with long-term horizons are advised to consider dollar-cost averaging at current levels, while more tactical traders may want to wait for clearer signals on the CLARITY Act's Senate path.
The second variable is leveraged Bitcoin holders. Grayscale identifies whether those positions can be stabilized near current price levels as a key determinant of whether a durable bottom is in.
ETF Outflows Complicate the Picture
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have added consistent selling pressure. BlackRock's BTC ETF recorded the longest outflow streak in its history at 13 consecutive days. Across the broader BTC ETF complex, outflows totaled roughly $4.4 billion during the period. Farside data shows June 5 alone drew $325.7 million in net outflows; June 8 added another $91.4 million. The sustained institutional exit is a concrete counterweight to Grayscale's on-chain valuation case — the data may say cheap, but the fund flows say caution.
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Filed by the digital assets desk of MarketPR on June 2, 2026. Source: cryptonewsz.com. Indicative figures are not investment advice.