Live-action 'Moana' tracks toward $150 million loss after $95 million global opening

Live-action "Moana" opened to $95 million globally in its first weekend, putting Disney (DIS) on course for a loss of at least $150 million on a film that carried a $250 million production budget and an estimated $100 million in marketing costs. The opening fell nearly $50 million short of Disney's own global forecast of $140 million and came in at $43 million domestically, well below the studio's internal estimate of $60 million to $65 million. The result stands as the second consecutive nine-figure loss for Disney's live-action remake unit, following "Snow White's" $170 million shortfall in 2025.

The break-even math

With theaters retaining roughly half of ticket revenue, Disney needs close to $700 million at the worldwide box office to recover production and marketing spend. If first-weekend receipts hold to the historical pattern of representing 40% of a film's domestic total, the full domestic haul lands around $107 million. The original animated "Moana" earned $248 million in 2016, a figure that adjusts to approximately $346.5 million in today's dollars. International performance may soften the result, but the distance between $95 million global and a $700 million break-even leaves little margin.

What critics and audiences flagged

Reviewers pointed to production quality: Dwayne Johnson's wig and special effects that fell short of the 2016 original's visual standard, a film that remains accessible on streaming and is only 10 years old. Johnson told Variety ahead of release that "Moana" carried meaning for its representation, describing how "Indiana Jones" had inspired him at age eight watching Harrison Ford. The comment drew coverage; Disney's own muted $60-65 million domestic estimate already reflected limited commercial expectations.

"Snow White" in 2025 traces a comparable arc. That film lost Disney $170 million after extensive reshoots, a widely panned performance from lead Rachel Zegler, and audience alienation that built before opening weekend.

What to watch

The live-action format is not uniformly impaired. "Lilo & Stitch" cleared $1 billion globally in 2025, and the 2019 "Lion King" generated nearly $1.7 billion worldwide. The question for Disney's new leadership is whether the greenlight process changes for the remaining animated catalog, and where the final worldwide print for "Moana" settles once the international run closes.