Smart cart rollout puts grocery basket size in focus for Instacart and Amazon investors

Research out of Bayes Business School at City St George's, University of London, found that shoppers using AI-equipped grocery carts spent 32% more on average than those pushing standard carts, a number that feeds directly into the throughput math for retailers deploying Instacart's Caper Cart (CART) and Amazon's Dash Cart (AMZN). The study, published in the Journal of Business Research, examined 12,418 shopping sessions at a German supermarket chain during March 2025, with 9,422 of those trips recorded on smart-cart technology. The next milestone to watch is Amazon's planned Dash Cart expansion to dozens of additional Whole Foods Market locations by the end of 2026.

What the data shows

The numbers come with a caveat. Researchers at Bayes Business School did not randomly assign shoppers to carts; they observed behavior, which means shoppers who chose a smart cart may already have planned a larger grocery run. Dr. Sabrina Gottschalk, the study's lead author and a lecturer in marketing at Bayes Business School, said the findings suggest retailers could see significant revenue gains from the technology, pointing to special offers and new product recommendations as potential opportunities. Beyond average basket size, the data showed smart-cart users bought 25% more items and spent 23% more time in the store. The spending gap widened during afternoons and weekends, while shoppers generally recorded their longest store visits during evening hours.

One wrinkle surfaced in the superuser segment: shoppers who interacted with the cart screen more than 20 times during a single trip bought more items and stayed longer, but their total spending did not increase. At high interaction levels, spending and basket size eventually began to decline, which researchers suggested may reflect shoppers engaging with the technology more for the experience than for purchasing purposes.

Capacity and footprint

The U.S. rollout is already well into execution. Instacart said in May 2026 that its Caper Carts span 15 states across more than 100 cities, covering more than a dozen retail banners. Named retailers include Kroger (KR), Schnucks, and Wakefern banners ShopRite and Fairway Market, along with Weis Markets. Caper Carts use basket-facing cameras, built-in scales, and location-tracking systems that can connect physical shopping behavior with a shopper's purchase history. Instacart said prompts reminding shoppers about forgotten items have increased average basket size in its own testing.

Amazon's Dash Cart uses cameras and sensors to track basket contents, displays a running total, and surfaces personalized nearby deals. Amazon said the newest Dash Cart version will reach dozens of additional Whole Foods Market locations across the U.S. by the end of 2026, which is when investors will get a clearer read on whether in-aisle screen inventory scales the way the basket-size data from Germany suggests it could.

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