Trump Advisers See Middle East Opportunities Beyond Netanyahu

President Donald Trump endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel's Tuesday election, but senior White House officials believe a government led by a different prime minister could better advance the administration's regional agenda, according to U.S. officials who spoke with Axios. The endorsement marks a shift from weeks of hesitation, with Trump suggesting that Netanyahu's defeat would have consequences for U.S.-Israel relations.

Despite the public support, many of Trump's closest advisers opposed the decision, arguing the president should remain uninvolved in the Israeli electoral process. Vice President JD Vance declined to endorse any candidate, stating that he was not attacking or endorsing Netanyahu and that the president's endorsement was the only one that mattered. Vance, who previously endorsed former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has since stated he will not get involved in foreign elections. Sources indicate that Vance and other senior aides grew disillusioned with Netanyahu during the war with Iran, citing what they view as mistaken pre-war assessments provided to the White House.

The internal friction extends across several key diplomatic fronts. Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have expressed frustration with Netanyahu's reluctance to implement the U.S. Gaza peace plan. Similarly, envoy Tom Barrack has raised concerns about the Israeli government's approach to Syria and continued military operations in the region. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team, while maintaining a better relationship with Netanyahu, believe Israel could do more to strengthen Lebanon's government and curb settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank. Some U.S. officials suggest that a new Israeli government without Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners might be easier to work with on these issues.

Pre-election polling released Friday by three major Israeli television networks indicates that Netanyahu's coalition is likely to fall short of a parliamentary majority. All three polls projected 50 seats for Netanyahu's bloc in the 120-member Knesset, which is 17 fewer than his current coalition holds. His Likud party was projected to win 20 seats, down from its current 32. The polls gave former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc between 52 and 56 seats. In addition, two Arab Israeli parties were projected to secure between 14 and 16 seats, while Channel 11 forecast a fourth party of reservists, independent of either main bloc, to win four seats. Pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 was an outlier, projecting 60 seats for his bloc and 30 for Likud.

The results point to a potential political deadlock, as neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot appears to have a clear path to the 61 seats required to form a government. Eisenkot has ruled out bringing Arab Israeli parties into his coalition, and a unity government with Netanyahu is considered highly unlikely. If neither side can assemble a governing majority, Israel could face another election, leaving Netanyahu in power as caretaker prime minister. For Trump, the election outcome will influence the timing of any renewed large-scale military action against Iran and progress on broader diplomatic goals, including an Israeli-Saudi peace agreement.