XRP Bounces Off $1.09 Fibonacci Floor as $1.25 Becomes the Line That Matters

$XRP touched the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $1.09 and bounced to $1.13, per CoinCodex data, with analyst CasiTrades framing the coming sessions as the decisive test of whether the selloff has run its course. The recovery has sketched what the analyst characterizes as an early ABC corrective structure, moving the near-term debate from the low to a pair of overhead levels that will define the next directional move.

The $1.12 Floor Bulls Must Defend

CasiTrades identifies $1.12 — the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement — as the market's immediate battleground. $XRP has held above it since bouncing from $1.09, but that holding pattern is the condition for the bull case, not the conclusion. If buyers continue to defend the zone, the analyst sees the setup pointing toward $1.25 as the next significant test.

What a $1.25 Break Would and Wouldn't Confirm

The $1.25 area carries structural weight in CasiTrades' Elliott Wave framework as the upper boundary of a potential Wave 4 recovery rally. A clean break above it would signal strengthening bullish momentum and raise confidence that XRP's macro correction has already found its floor. Failure to clear it, however, would indicate the current advance is a relief bounce inside a broader corrective trend — not a reversal.

Extension Targets and the Bearish Path

Beyond $1.25, CasiTrades points to $1.30 as the next confirmation level and $1.65 as the price at which the probability of another major leg lower would materially decline. The bearish scenario runs back through resistance: a rejection near $1.25 could return $XRP to retest $1.09. If that level fails, the analyst sees a potential capitulation move toward $0.90 — which, in Elliott Wave terms, would complete a larger Wave 2 correction before any durable recovery takes shape.

One Structural Data Point Worth Separating Out

$XRP and $BTC are, according to the analysis, the only two cryptocurrencies to have held a continuous top-10 market-cap ranking since 2014 — a streak that spans multiple cycles and corrections more severe than the current one. That market-structure fact stands apart from the Fibonacci levels and wave counts: it describes where $XRP has been, not where it is going from $1.13.