XRP Monthly RSI Hits 41.6, a Level That Has Preceded Major Rallies — but the Math Is Different This Time

$XRP's monthly relative strength index has dropped to approximately 41.6, a reading analyst Sam Daodu describes as the lowest on record and a zone the token has entered only four times across 13 years. Each of the three prior instances — in 2017, 2020, and 2022 — was followed by dramatic price advances, though Daodu is direct about why applying those percentage gains to today's price base would produce unrealistic targets.

What the RSI Signal Actually Shows

The monthly RSI reading near 41.6 sits in territory Daodu characterizes as deep oversold. The signal's rarity is the core of his thesis: four occurrences in more than a decade gives it pattern weight that shorter-timeframe readings lack. The setup came into view as XRP tested the $1 support level during a recent sell-off, which is what put the monthly chart back under scrutiny.

The three prior appearances of this RSI configuration preceded gains ranging from roughly 1,000% to 60,000%. Those figures are accurate — and also misleading without context. The 60,000% move originated from a price under one cent in 2017 and carried XRP to $3.84. Percentage math applied from a sub-penny base and percentage math applied from a dollar-plus base are two entirely different exercises.

What a Realistic Outcome Looks Like

Daodu's framing explicitly rejects extrapolating prior percentage gains onto the current price. Instead, he points to the $3.65 cycle high as a plausible recovery target, which would represent roughly a 3x move from levels near the $1 test. That outcome, he argues, is credible if broader crypto market sentiment turns supportive over the next year or two.

Moving beyond $5 is framed as a different category of outcome — one that would require fundamental catalysts, specifically the passage of the CLARITY Act and genuine expansion of ETF demand, not merely a technical bounce off oversold RSI conditions.

Timeline: Patience Is Part of the Trade

The pattern, if it holds, is not designed to resolve quickly. Daodu's estimate puts a full rally development as far out as 2027. He also notes that a period of flat price action through the summer would not invalidate the setup, because the monthly RSI configuration plays out across a longer timeframe by design.

The signal has drawn attention again precisely because it is rare. But the analyst's own read is that the next move — whatever its size — will be shaped more by regulatory and institutional catalysts than by a chart reading that last appeared when XRP traded for fractions of a cent.