Fertilizer Supply Crunch, Not Corporate Greed, Is Pushing U.S. Food Prices Higher
Steve Moore, the economist and commentator, argues that geopolitical supply shocks — not domestic manufacturer misconduct — are the transmission mechanism behind rising American food prices. Fertilizer inputs including sulfur, ammonia, and phosphate rock are caught between the Russia-Ukraine war and a paralyzed Strait of Hormuz, and Moore's analysis calls on Washington to fix supply rather than hunt for corporate scapegoats.
Key takeaways
- Economist Steve Moore argues that geopolitical fertilizer supply shocks, not corporate greed, are driving up U.S. food prices.
- Ukrainian drone strikes have cut Russian output, dropping its ammonia exports to roughly 80% below pre-war levels.
- A standstill in the Strait of Hormuz—which carries about half the world's sulfur—has left roughly 16 million tons of fertilizer in limbo.
- China, the world's second-largest fertilizer exporter, has restricted shipments of fertilizer and inputs like sulfuric acid, removing remaining global slack.
- Moore says the fix is deregulating domestic fertilizer and energy production rather than penalizing producers.
Steve Moore, the economist and commentator, argues that geopolitical supply shocks — not domestic manufacturer misconduct — are the transmission mechanism behind rising American food prices. Fertilizer inputs including sulfur, ammonia, and phosphate rock are caught between the Russia-Ukraine war and a paralyzed Strait of Hormuz, and Moore's analysis calls on Washington to fix supply rather than hunt for corporate scapegoats.
Russia's Output Collapse Is the First Domino
Russia produced 7.5 million metric tons of sulfur last year, making it the world's third-largest producer — a function of its oil-refining capacity, since sulfur is a byproduct of that process. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil and fertilizer infrastructure have sharply curtailed that output. Russia's ammonia exports have since fallen to roughly 80% below pre-war levels. Sulfur and ammonia are two of the three core raw materials — alongside phosphate rock — that fertilizer production depends on. When their availability shrinks, crop yields fall; when crop yields fall, grocery bills follow.
The Strait of Hormuz Has Frozen 16 Million Tons
Middle East tensions are compounding the damage on a second front. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively at a standstill, roughly 16 million tons of fertilizer remain in limbo. The strait also carries roughly half of the world's sulfur supply, so disruptions there feed directly into input costs for American farm operations. Trump has already declared a food supply emergency and suspended tariffs on key fertilizer imports in recognition of the tightening picture.
China's Export Curbs Close the Last Escape Valve
China, the world's second-largest fertilizer exporter, has restricted shipments of fertilizer and raw inputs including sulfuric acid. Moore characterizes this as an unfair trade practice that removes what little slack remained in global supply. Sourcing replacement inputs from markets facing the same squeeze, he notes, amounts to filling an empty glass with an empty pitcher.
The Fix Is Deregulation, Not Punishment
Moore contends that permitting delays, burdensome regulations, and restrictions on domestic energy development raise U.S. fertilizer production costs unnecessarily — and that policymakers should remove those obstacles before penalizing producers. His timing warning is pointed: many farmers had already locked in fertilizer purchases ahead of this year's disruptions, providing a one-season buffer that will not repeat. If the supply crunch persists through the next planting season, consumers will feel the full weight. The market is not failing, Moore concludes — it is pricing scarcity exactly as designed, and no villain narrative unwinds that math.
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Filed by the newsroom of MarketPR on July 6, 2026. Source: foxnews.com. Indicative figures are not investment advice.