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NewsDigital Assets · $BTC

Hedge Funds Flip Net Long on CME Bitcoin Futures as On-Chain Demand Signals Lag

$BTC is in focus after leveraged funds on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange turned net long on Bitcoin futures for the first time in years, a shift flagged by data firm CryptoQuant. The move breaks from a years-long net short stance built largely on the basis trade, a market-neutral strategy. Whether US spot demand confirms the paper bet is what the tape is now watching.

By Renata OstrowskiDigital Assets DeskAugust 10, 20262 min read$BTC
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Key takeaways

  • Leveraged funds on the CME turned net long on Bitcoin futures for the first time in years, breaking a long-standing net short stance tied to the basis trade, according to CryptoQuant.
  • The bullish futures positioning is not confirmed by US spot demand, as the Coinbase Premium Index has stayed below zero since early May and sat near minus 0.08 as the data circulated.
  • Open interest across all exchanges sits near $23 billion, close to a one-year low and well below the roughly $48 billion reached last October, signaling little new capital entering.
  • Bitcoin traded near $65,254 as the data circulated, little changed on the session.
  • A positive Coinbase Premium Index and rising open interest are the two readings that would confirm the hedge fund net long bet.

$BTC is in focus after leveraged funds on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange turned net long on Bitcoin futures for the first time in years, a shift flagged by data firm CryptoQuant. The move breaks from a years-long net short stance built largely on the basis trade, a market-neutral strategy. Whether US spot demand confirms the paper bet is what the tape is now watching.

The basis trade and why the flip matters

For years, leveraged funds (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's label for a group that consists mostly of hedge funds) held net short positions on CME Bitcoin futures. That was not a bearish call. The shorts came from the basis trade: buy Bitcoin on the spot market, sell an equal amount of futures contracts, and lock in the small price gap at expiry. Because the strategy always requires selling futures, it registers as short in CFTC positioning data.

A net long flip means those funds now carry a directional bullish bet, not a hedge. That break from years of positioning habit is the story.

What the data actually shows

The bullish futures positioning has no confirmation in US spot demand. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures whether Bitcoin trades at a premium on Coinbase relative to offshore platforms, has stayed below zero since early May. As the data circulated, the index sat near minus 0.08. It has also printed lower highs and lower lows since July 22. Large American institutions, by that gauge, are not buying the actual coin.

Open interest across all exchanges sits near $23 billion, close to the lowest level of the past year and well below the roughly $48 billion reached last October. A partial recovery from a late-June low near $20.5 billion has not changed the picture much. Thin open interest means little new money is entering. A bullish tilt without fresh capital behind it rarely fuels a sharp rally. The one offset: a small open interest base limits the damage from a potential long flush if the hedge fund bets unwind.

Bitcoin traded near $65,254 as the data circulated, little changed on the session.

What to watch

Two readings would put real weight behind the futures positioning. A Coinbase Premium Index that turns positive would show US buyers paying up for spot Bitcoin. Rising open interest would confirm new capital is entering rather than existing traders shifting their lean. Until both flip, the hedge fund net long print stays an unconfirmed setup on the tape.

Related reading

About this story

Filed by the digital assets desk of MarketPR on August 10, 2026. Source: finance.yahoo.com. Indicative figures are not investment advice.

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Frequently asked

What is the basis trade and why did it make hedge funds appear net short?

The basis trade involves buying Bitcoin on the spot market and selling an equal amount of futures contracts to lock in the small price gap at expiry; because it always requires selling futures, it registers as short in CFTC positioning data despite not being a bearish call.

Why does the net long flip matter?

A net long flip means the funds now carry a directional bullish bet rather than a market-neutral hedge, breaking years of positioning habit.

What does the Coinbase Premium Index indicate about US demand?

The index, which measures whether Bitcoin trades at a premium on Coinbase relative to offshore platforms, has stayed below zero since early May and printed lower highs and lows since July 22, indicating large American institutions are not buying the actual coin.

What would confirm the bullish futures positioning?

A Coinbase Premium Index that turns positive would show US buyers paying up for spot Bitcoin, and rising open interest would confirm new capital is entering; until both flip, the net long print stays an unconfirmed setup.

What is the significance of the low open interest?

Thin open interest near $23 billion means little new money is entering, so a bullish tilt is unlikely to fuel a sharp rally, though the small base also limits damage from a potential long flush if the bets unwind.