Kalshi traders see September CPI at 3.6% as 2026 inflation peaks

Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi anticipate the September consumer price index will show a 3.6% increase year over year, a figure that aligns with the FactSet consensus estimate. This projection marks a rise from the 3.4% advance recorded in August, suggesting that while inflation may have reached its peak for the year, prices are not expected to fall sharply in the near term.

The September CPI report is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Kalshi contracts, which are resolved using official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, currently assign just under one-in-three odds to inflation hitting new highs in 2026. The most recent peak for year-over-year inflation occurred in May, when it reached 4.2%.

Regarding core inflation, which excludes food and energy price changes, traders predict the rate will remain steady at 2.4% year over year, consistent with economists' estimates via FactSet. However, market participants expect core inflation to stay elevated for the remainder of 2026. There is only a 6% probability that core inflation will drop below 2.2% this year, a level last seen before the inflation spike that began in 2021.