Bitcoin nears $80,000 as mixed CPI print fans the Fed rate debate
Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics release handed markets a split verdict on inflation, and $BTC absorbed the initial selloff before reversing. Headline CPI printed at 3.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month, both in line with consensus, while the monthly core reading came in at 0.3%, a tick above the 0.2% analysts had penciled in. Bitcoin now trades near $79,007, up 3.24% on the session, with the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting the next hard catalyst.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin trades near $79,007, up 3.24% on the session, approaching but not yet clearing the $80,000 level.
- Headline CPI came in at 3.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month (both in line with consensus), while monthly core CPI was 0.3%, above the expected 0.2%.
- Annual core CPI cooled to 2.4% from July's 2.5%, its lowest reading since 2021.
- CME FedWatch puts the odds of a 25-basis-point Fed hike at roughly 69%, with Polymarket at 62% and Myriad at 61%.
- The Federal Reserve's rate decision lands Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET, following its September 15-16 meeting.
Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics release handed markets a split verdict on inflation, and $BTC absorbed the initial selloff before reversing. Headline CPI printed at 3.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month, both in line with consensus, while the monthly core reading came in at 0.3%, a tick above the 0.2% analysts had penciled in. Bitcoin now trades near $79,007, up 3.24% on the session, with the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting the next hard catalyst.
Bitcoin opened Friday at $76,529, briefly touched a session low of $76,040 in the minutes following the print, then reversed. The coin climbed as high as $79,837 before settling near $79,007, pressing the psychologically significant $80,000 level without yet clearing it.
The numbers behind the decision
The annual core CPI rate cooled to 2.4% from July's 2.5%, its lowest reading since 2021. The monthly 0.3% print was the detail that gave traders pause. CME FedWatch, tracking probabilities implied by 30-day Fed funds futures, puts the odds of a 25-basis-point hike at roughly 69%. Polymarket prices the same outcome at 62%, and Myriad, the platform run by Decrypt parent company Dastan, has it at 61%. Three regional Fed presidents already dissented in favor of a hike at the July meeting, and Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole keynote to say the committee still has "work to do" on inflation.
The setup
Bitcoin's 50-day exponential moving average has crossed above its 200-day, a golden cross. The cross is fresh. The gap between the two averages remains narrow and confirmation is pending. The RSI sits at 59.7, below the 70 reading that would flag the move as overbought, and the Average Directional Index reads in the 40s, comfortably above the 25 threshold that separates a real trend from noise, with DI+ above DI- on the day.
The Fibonacci support zone sits between $73,986 and $75,569, drawn off the summer's $68,858 low and the $82,281 late-August high. That late-August high remains the level the tape needs to break for the rally to extend before the vote.
Flows offer a counterpoint. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net outflow of roughly $330.5 million on the day. Price recovery and institutional rotation are different things. Open interest across crypto futures rose 1.52% to $429.99 billion, with 24-hour volume up 2.27% to $877.11 billion. The session generated $897.09 million in liquidations: $493.85 million in long positions and $403.24 million in shorts. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which had slipped to 56 after Thursday's hot producer-price report, recovered to 73, back in greed territory. The Altcoin Season Index at 38 signals traders have not yet rotated meaningfully from Bitcoin.
The Fed's rate decision lands Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Related reading
Filed by the digital assets desk of MarketPR on September 12, 2026. Source: finance.yahoo.com. Indicative figures are not investment advice.