Morgan Stanley sets $300 target on SPCX as lockup clock resets
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas put a $300 price target on Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) in July, implying 129% upside from the stock's current level of $131. SPCX is down 35% from its post-IPO high but has advanced more than 10% since the first lockup expiration cleared Aug. 6 without a selloff. More unlocks are ahead, and the supply math gets bigger each round.
Key takeaways
- Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas set a $300 price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) in July, implying 129% upside from the stock's $131 level.
- SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company showed Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, with a net loss of $541 million ($0.09 per diluted share).
- SPCX's first lockup expired Aug. 6 without a selloff, and the stock has advanced more than 10% since, though it remains 35% below its post-IPO high and below its $135 IPO price.
- Jonas projects SpaceX revenue of $319 billion by 2030 at 88% annual growth, with the AI segment growing 148% annually to $190 billion.
- SpaceX's float is about 1.4 billion shares and is expected to exceed 5 billion by year end as more lockups expire.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas put a $300 price target on Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) in July, implying 129% upside from the stock's current level of $131. SPCX is down 35% from its post-IPO high but has advanced more than 10% since the first lockup expiration cleared Aug. 6 without a selloff. More unlocks are ahead, and the supply math gets bigger each round.
The print and the forecast
SpaceX delivered its first quarterly report as a public company in Q2. Revenue came in at $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, a sharp acceleration from 15% growth in Q1. The AI segment led the move; sales there more than tripled. Net loss was $541 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, as AI compute spending expanded. On the earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said SpaceX expects to end this year with over 2 gigawatts of compute online, and that cumulative capacity by end of next year could reach closer to 10 gigawatts than 5 gigawatts. Musk has also said the first orbital data centers could launch in 2027. SpaceX described its positioning in the S-1 as the "only company with a commercially viable path to building orbital AI compute at scale."
Jonas builds his $300 case on vertical integration. In a July note to clients, he wrote that SpaceX "combines near-monopoly launch economics, the largest low-Earth orbit satellite network, and a fast-scaling AI infrastructure business" and called it "one of the few platforms that can link real estate in orbit, global connectivity, and compute capacity into one infrastructure stack." He projects revenue of $319 billion by 2030, at 88% annual growth, with the AI segment growing 148% annually to reach $190 billion. Connectivity, in his estimate, grows 69% annually; space, 16%. Among 40 analysts, the median target sits at $217, implying 65% upside from the current level.
The unlock schedule
SpaceX sold 555 million shares in the IPO, under 5% of total shares outstanding. Another 911.5 million shares became available the second trading day after the Q2 report. The float currently stands at roughly 1.4 billion shares and is expected to exceed 5 billion by year end. SPCX is trading below its $135 IPO price. The next lockup expirations and any insider filings that follow are what the tape needs to clear.
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Filed by the newsroom of MarketPR on August 14, 2026. Source: finance.yahoo.com. Indicative figures are not investment advice.