Palantir raises 2026 revenue guide to $8.15 billion, stock up 69.8%

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) increased its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $8.15 billion to $8.158 billion on August 3, a revision management described as the largest full-year revenue guidance raise in company history. The prior expectation for the same period was $7.66 billion, meaning the new forecast represents a 6.5% increase over previous projections. This adjustment moves a future sales projection higher rather than counting revenue already recorded in the books.

Management attributed the upward revision primarily to performance in the U.S. business, where revenue grew 115% year-over-year in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. During the same earnings call, the company noted that businesses are seeking sovereign AI solutions. The guidance increase extended beyond total revenue; Palantir also lifted its forecast for U.S. commercial revenue, which covers sales to businesses within the United States, to more than $3.424 billion from a prior estimate of $3.22 billion. All other full-year financial lines revised by the company, including adjusted free cash flow, were also raised, with no line guided lower.

The stock price has moved in tandem with these revised expectations. Palantir shares closed at $209.00 on October 12, 2026, up 69.8% since the close preceding the August 3 announcement, compared with a 4.2% gain for the S&P 500 over the same period. The shares currently trade above both their 50-day moving average of $178.70 and their 200-day moving average of $152.41. The initial price reaction occurred in two phases: a 32.2% rise during the two trading sessions around the release, which priced in both quarterly results and the new guide, followed by an additional 28.5% gain since then, while the S&P 500 added only 0.9%.

Looking ahead, Palantir can meet its raised annual guide even if growth slows from the first half of fiscal 2026. With two quarters remaining in the fiscal year, approximately $4.6 billion in revenue is left to be reported. This remaining amount translates to a required growth rate of 77.2% over the same quarters last year, down from the 89.0% growth recorded in the two quarters already reported. The U.S. commercial segment, which grew 149% year-over-year in the second quarter, could push results beyond the guide if it maintains its pace. Management stated a goal to grow the entire company at least as fast as its U.S. commercial division over the next 18 months, though this remains an aspirational target rather than a component of the formal guidance.

Investors are paying a premium for this growth trajectory, with Palantir trading at 166.3 times earnings compared to 21.9 for the S&P 500. The alignment between management’s forecast and the stock’s technical trend will face its next test when Palantir reports third-quarter results against a guide of $2.16 billion to $2.164 billion for that quarter.