Ripple Escrow Release Leaves 300 Million XRP Unlocked Amid Thin Buying

Ripple moved 1 billion XRP from escrow at the start of September, leaving 300 million coins outside new time locks by the end of the day. The $XRP price remains near $1.40, a level that reflects limited market absorption rather than immediate selling pressure.

The release involved three old escrows ending, which freed 500 million, 400 million, and 100 million XRP. Two new escrows subsequently took back 500 million and 200 million coins. The remaining 300 million XRP, valued at approximately $422 million, transferred between wallets labeled by Ripple. This movement did not constitute a sale or a deposit to an exchange, yet it created a supply overhang that the market struggled to handle.

Buy orders near the current price total $108.2 million, a figure almost four times smaller than the value of the unlocked coins. The price held because no one tested that limit. The 1- to 2-year holding band for XRP rose from 17.3% of supply in late August to about 18.2% now. These long-term holders have not sold into the pullback since August 22, suggesting that the oldest supply is refusing to move.

This stillness is accompanied by fading volume. Daily volume has fallen every session since the August 22 burst, dropping to about 27.6 million XRP. The technical setup is close to a golden cross, where the 20-day exponential moving average at $1.3516 is poised to climb above the slower 200-day line at $1.3540. However, crossovers built on falling volume often fail.

Over 21 sessions, XRP gained 42.4%, outperforming Bitcoin's 27.0% and Ethereum's 33.8%. Yet over the last 14 days, XRP was the weakest of 20 large coins against that pair, trailing by 5.7%. Futures data shows a divergence between trader counts and capital allocation. Large traders bet on a rise at a ratio of 2.86 to 1, compared to 2.46 for ordinary traders. When weighed by money size, that ratio drops to 2.09. Most large accounts sit on the bullish side without significant capital behind them, while their shorts are the bigger trades. XRP is one of four major cryptocurrencies where this gap runs negative.

The current price of $1.4079 sits above both moving averages, keeping the recovery alive. Confirmation requires breaking through $1.4785, a level that has capped rebounds since late August and represents a move of about 5%. Clearing that level opens the path to $1.5832 and then the $1.6678 to $1.7038 area near the August peak, a potential 21% move from current prices. A daily close below $1.3092 would break the technical setup.

The market lacks active buyers to push prices higher, even as sellers remain absent. A price increase requires someone willing to pay more, and that participant is currently missing from the order book.