Scott County GOP rejects blue wave narrative ahead of Iowa midterms

Local Republican candidates in Davenport, Iowa, told Fox News Digital that media predictions of a Democratic "blue wave" in the Hawkeye State do not match the reactions they encounter while campaigning. Speaking at a Scott County Republican Party event in early October, the candidates argued that voters remain engaged with the GOP despite national concerns over gas prices and the war in Iran.

Greg Guy, a Republican candidate for Scott County treasurer, said Iowans are concerned about gas costs but view the surge as likely temporary once the conflict in Iran ends. Guy stated he does not see excitement among Democrats for the upcoming election. He noted that when knocking on doors, only a small percentage of respondents express strong opposition to his campaign. Guy believes many Democrats are "wound up in the hate" and lack belief that their party can fix the economy.

Davenport, a city of approximately 100,000 people along the Mississippi River, serves as a Democratic-leaning urban pocket within an increasingly Republican Iowa. President Donald Trump carried Scott County by roughly four points in 2024, winning 51% to 47%, while former Vice President Kamala Harris won the city’s congressional district precincts overall. Trump won Iowa by about 13 points in 2024, and Republicans currently hold the governor’s office and both chambers of the state legislature.

Cynthia Mensendick, a registered nurse running for Iowa State Senate District 49, said she does not see a blue wave building. She argued that voters worry a Democratic governor would immediately increase spending, comparing a potential shift to Iowa becoming like Illinois if Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand is elected. Mensendick’s campaign focuses on healthcare and the state’s high cancer rate.

Polling indicates Democrats have gained momentum in Iowa’s gubernatorial, Senate, and congressional races, presenting Republicans with historical headwinds as the party in power. However, Scott County’s mix of urban Democrats, suburban swing voters, and conservative rural communities makes it a key test of GOP strength. Dillon Fillion, the youngest candidate in Scott County history at age 22 and a runner for Iowa House District 81, urged voters to weigh their options. He criticized Democratic candidates like Abdul El-Sayed as socialist and defended Republicans for cutting taxes in 2025 with the One Big Beautiful Bill. Fillion claimed Democrats voted to raise their taxes 60% in 2025 by voting against that bill.

Kurt Whalen, the Scott County Iowa GOP Vice Chair, said he believes Republican voters will not sit on the sidelines. Whalen described the GOP as a big tent party where some members love President Trump while others do not care for him. He characterized Trump as an overwhelming force for good and warned that the alternative to voting Republican involves support for communist, Marxist, and DSA policies. Whalen stated he believes the Republican Party will ultimately come home to support the president.