Rogers camp pushes AIPAC out of Michigan Senate fight

Allies of Michigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers have asked AIPAC not to advertise on his behalf, prompting the pro-Israel group to shelve a video it had already cut against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. What to watch: whether the two sides reconcile before Nov. 3, with AIPAC's super PAC carrying nearly $60 million as of the end of July.

AIPAC poured more than $30 million into the Democratic primary trying to defeat El-Sayed, who has called Israel a "rogue state," accused it of genocide and apartheid, and has declined to say whether Israel has a right to exist as a Jewish state. Rogers' allies warned AIPAC before the Aug. 4 primary that they believed El-Sayed would beat Democratic opponent Haley Stevens. He narrowly did. AIPAC then told Rogers' team it wanted to press its advertising into the general election. Rogers' team said no.

Rogers' allies argued AIPAC's primary ads had given El-Sayed a foil rather than harming him. El-Sayed made the point himself. Before his primary win, he said, "AIPAC, if you're listening, come back and burn it again."

Rogers is running in a swing state with one of the country's largest Arab American populations. A Fox News poll found 55% of Michigan voters oppose continued U.S. aid to Israel. Rogers himself told Axios he welcomes pro-Israel involvement: "I welcome any and all support from the pro-Israel community and I'm proud to have their involvement." His team's read is that AIPAC's visible presence in this race is a liability regardless.

Rogers' team proposed several off-ramps: directing AIPAC donors to a pro-Rogers super PAC, routing money through a joint fundraising committee the campaign has established with the national GOP, or hiring AIPAC's own political strategists to guide the effort from inside the campaign. AIPAC officials rejected each option. The group's position was that because Rogers is staunchly pro-Israel, El-Sayed would tie him to AIPAC regardless of who ran the ads.

Direct talks have since gone cold. Jewish Republican donors with ties to both sides are now acting as intermediaries, according to people familiar with the discussions. AIPAC has absorbed a string of primary losses; on Tuesday, a candidate it opposed won a special election for a Northern California House seat. AIPAC chair Michael Tuchin spoke with Rogers in Los Angeles last week, and the ad was shelved the following day. Some national Republicans now fear AIPAC will sit out Michigan entirely. Others expect eventual reconciliation, on the theory that the group has too much at stake.

The next hard date is Nov. 3.