Stifel Upgrades LUNR to Buy After Intuitive Machines Posts Wide Q2 Miss
In focus for $LUNR: Stifel upgraded Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) to Buy from Hold after the company posted a second-quarter earnings miss that sent shares down as much as 13% on August 13. The firm cut its price objective to $26 from $32 and anchored its upgrade on a $707 million backlog addition during the quarter that lifted the total order book to $1.76 billion. The next read on whether that thesis holds is the following quarterly print.
Key takeaways
- Stifel upgraded Intuitive Machines (LUNR) to Buy from Hold after its Q2 earnings miss, while cutting its price target to $26 from $32.
- Q2 revenue was $206.2 million, up from $50.3 million a year earlier but below the $224 million consensus, with an adjusted loss of $0.29 per share versus the expected $0.09 loss.
- The company's order book grew to $1.76 billion, aided by a $707 million backlog addition and a 4.5x book-to-bill ratio during the quarter.
- Stifel attributes the adjusted EBITDA loss of $13.8 million largely to a $14.7 million charge tied to mid-development payload revisions on the IM-4 lunar lander program.
- Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion and its expectation for positive adjusted EBITDA.
In focus for $LUNR: Stifel upgraded Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) to Buy from Hold after the company posted a second-quarter earnings miss that sent shares down as much as 13% on August 13. The firm cut its price objective to $26 from $32 and anchored its upgrade on a $707 million backlog addition during the quarter that lifted the total order book to $1.76 billion. The next read on whether that thesis holds is the following quarterly print.
The Q2 print came in short on every headline metric. Revenue was $206.2 million, well above the prior year's $50.3 million but below the $224 million consensus. The adjusted loss per share was $0.29, against the $0.09 loss analysts had modeled, a negative surprise of more than 200%. Adjusted EBITDA was a $13.8 million loss; the street had expected a $2.8 million profit.
The numbers behind the miss
Stifel's buy case rests on the view that the EBITDA shortfall was specific and explainable. The firm traced it to a negative estimate-at-completion adjustment on the IM-4 lunar lander program linked to a $14.7 million charge for mid-development payload revisions. Whether that charge was a one-time catch-up or a signal of what comes next as the company executes on a much larger book is what the setup turns on.
The order book grew from $1.05 billion to $1.76 billion during the quarter, up from $213.1 million at the end of 2025, with a book-to-bill ratio of 4.5x. More than $600 million of the additions came from three commercial geostationary satellite agreements. A July deal covering 18 spacecraft for the Golden Dome missile-defense network extends the company's reach into defense, beyond the lunar lander programs that originally defined the LUNR story.
CEO Steve Altemus characterized the quarter as positive on the strength of bookings and revenue that came in more than four times higher than the prior year. Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion and its expectation for positive adjusted EBITDA.
What to watch
Short interest sits at 25.46% of the float, reflecting skepticism about whether a backlog this large converts into recognized revenue on schedule and at profitable margins. Hedge fund count moved from 28 in the fourth quarter of last year to 32 in the second quarter, directionally positive but not a crowded long.
Execution is the variable. The coming quarters will either confirm Stifel's read that the IM-4 charge was discrete or raise wider questions about cost structures as the company attempts to convert that backlog into on-time, margin-positive delivery.
Related reading
Filed by the newsroom of MarketPR on August 23, 2026. Source: finance.yahoo.com. Indicative figures are not investment advice.